On December 1, Shenghong Sierbang Petrochemical's fourth set of 260,000 tons/year acrylonitrile plant was put into operation in Jiangsu Lianyungang Petrochemical Industry Base, producing high-quality acrylonitrile. At this point, Shenghong's acrylonitrile production capacity rose to 1.04 million tons/year, marking Lianyungang Petrochemical Industry Base and becoming the world's largest acrylonitrile production base.
Acrylonitrile is an important raw material for three major synthetic materials (plastics, synthetic rubber, synthetic fibers). Its upstream raw materials are acrylic and liquid ammonia, and its downstream are mainly acrylonitrile-butadiene-styrene (ABS) resin, acrylic fiber, acrylamide, carbon fiber, etc., which are widely used in aerospace, wind power generation, automobiles, machinery, electronics and other fields. But this kind of multi-purpose, large-scale and wide-ranging basic material, our country once needed a large number of imports. From 2011 to 2013, our country imported more than 500,000 tons of acrylonitrile every year, and the import dependence exceeded 30%.
In 2013, Shenghong started construction of the first acrylonitrile plant with an annual output of 260,000 tons in Lianyungang Petrochemical Industry Base, which was successfully started in 2015.
Since 2016, the import volume of acrylonitrile in our country has decreased significantly, and the import dependence has also decreased significantly. In 2016 and 2017, the import volume of acrylonitrile in our country was 306,100 tons and 270,800 tons respectively, and the import dependence was 13.7% and 12% respectively. While promoting import substitution, Chinese acrylonitrile enterprises have also accelerated the pace of participating in the global market and filling the gap in overseas markets.
The industrial production methods of acrylonitrile mainly include acrylic ammonia oxidation method and propane ammonia oxidation method. At present, more than 90% of the acrylonitrile plants in the world are produced by acrylic ammonia oxidation method. The main raw materials are acrylic and synthetic ammonia, and the by-products are hydrocyanic acid, acetonitrile and ammonium sulfate.
In 2022, the global acrylonitrile production capacity will be 8.53 million tons/year, an increase of 11.9% year-on-year. The production capacity is mainly distributed in South East Asia (66.37%), North America (19.55%) and Europe (9.91%). In 2022, the total new production capacity of acrylonitrile worldwide will be 910,000 tons/year, all concentrated in China. In 2022, China's production capacity will account for 44.7%, making it the largest acrylonitrile production area in the world.
Domestic acrylonitrile production capacity will grow steadily before 2021, and capacity expansion will accelerate in 2022. By the end of the year, the total production capacity of the industry will increase to 3.809 million tons/year, and the production capacity growth rate will reach 31.4%, accounting for 44.7% of the global total production capacity. Among them, the industry accounts for the top four enterprises (Sierbang Petrochemical, Shanghai Secco, Zhejiang Petrochemical, Jilin Petrochemical) with a total production capacity of 2.272 million tons/year, accounting for 59.6% of the national total production capacity. From the perspective of production process, all are acrylic ammonia oxidation process.
From the perspective of regional distribution, East China and Northeast China are the main regions, with a total production capacity of 3.304 million tons/year, accounting for 86.7%.
From the annual output point of view, the domestic acrylonitrile production shows an upward trend year by year, 2022 output of about 3 million tons, an increase of 14.94%, is expected to reach 3.45 million tons in 2023, a year-on-year growth rate of 15.00%.
In the next five years, with the successive launch of refining and chemical projects, the domestic production capacity of acrylonitrile products will also increase significantly. According to the statistics of the planned plant under construction, the total production capacity of acrylonitrile in our country will be 4.399 million tons/year in 2023, and there will still be 3.26 million tons/year of new production capacity planned for 2024-2027. By 2027, the total production capacity of acrylonitrile in China is expected to reach 7.659 million tons/year. The average growth rate of acrylonitrile production capacity in our country will reach 16.6% in 2023-2027. The ABS industry, which is the main demand growth point in the downstream field, is also facing an oversupply situation, so the overall demand growth is far less than the supply growth.
It is expected that the growth rate of acrylonitrile production capacity will slow down from 2023 to 2024. During this period, the excess resources will be gradually digested through the follow-up of downstream demand and the increase of export volume, and the oversupply situation will be alleviated to a certain extent. From 2025, a new round of capacity expansion will enter, and the excess situation will become more prominent.
Considering the possible shutdown of some small-scale old devices, it is generally expected that our country's acrylonitrile production capacity will reach about 7 million tons/year in 2027, and the acrylonitrile industry will be in a state of oversupply for a long time in the future.
Source: Longzhong Information
The downstream consumption of acrylonitrile in our country is relatively extensive, but it is mainly concentrated in the three fields of ABS, acrylic fiber and acrylamide, and is also used in the industries of nitrile latex, nitrile rubber, polymer polyol and carbon fiber.
According to statistics, in 2022, the domestic ABS production was 4.425 million tons, accounting for 41% of the total consumption of acrylonitrile; the output of acrylamide in 2022 reached 680,000 tons, and the consumption accounted for 20%; the consumption of acrylic fiber increased significantly compared with last year, and the annual output was 560,000 tons, and the consumption accounted for 20%; in addition, the demand of the nitrile latex industry shrank, and the industry output plummeted to about 550,000 tons in 2022, accounting for 5%; the growth rate of the carbon fiber industry accelerated, and the consumption accounted for 4%.
The downstream consumption area of acrylonitrile in our country is relatively concentrated, mainly distributed in East China and Northeast China, and the consumption in the two regions accounts for 84% of the total domestic consumption.
Among them, East China has gathered three major downstream factories in the fields of ABS, acrylic and acrylamide, and other small and medium-sized downstream enterprises are also mainly distributed in East China, accounting for 62% of consumption; Northeast China also has three major downstream factories, accounting for 22%; North China mainly consists of Tianjin Dagu ABS factory, Hebei acrylic and nitrile latex factory, accounting for 7%; Central China mainly consists of acrylamide factories concentrated in Henan, accounting for 4%; South China has some ABS and acrylamide factories, accounting for 5%.
In the next five years, in the downstream of acrylonitrile in our country, the ABS industry will still be the main demand growth point. Thanks to the promotion of industry policies and demand in new energy vehicles and other fields, coupled with the stimulation of high profits in previous years, the ABS industry has also attracted more capital to enter, and its new production capacity will be launched between 2023 and 2025.
According to statistics, as of 2026, the domestic ABS resin new capacity will break through 5 million tons/year, however, under the high expansion cycle, the domestic ABS industry will also face the situation of oversupply, so its capacity utilization rate will decline in the next five years. It is expected that the domestic ABS industry capacity utilization rate will decrease from 80% to 70% in 2023-2027, and the output will increase from 6 million tons to 7.40 million tons, with a compound growth rate of 5.4%, weaker than the capacity growth rate of 5.8%.